Pakistan-Saudi Defense Pact: Turbulence in the Middle East Reshaping Regional Geopolitics
On September 17, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman welcomed the Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to sign a “Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement” (SMDA), also known as the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact. Though Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have historically enjoyed a close relationship since the independence of Pakistan in 1947, the Israeli strike in Doha, Qatar, earlier that month made Saudi Arabia and Pakistan accelerate the mutual defense pact and raised security concerns throughout the Middle East, especially in the Gulf States. Though denied by Saudi officials, “This is not a response to a specific country or specific events but an institutionalization of longstanding and deep cooperation;” the acceleration is a clear indicator of its connection to Israel’s extensive aggression in the Middle East, as reported by Rabia Akhtar, an expert from Harvard. The SMDA ensures defense commitment between the two countries, where an act of aggression against either country will be considered an attack against both.
The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defense pact formalizes a decade-long security partnership and strengthens deterrence against regional threats. In spite of the fact that the full text of the agreement has not been made public, according to a senior Saudi official, the pact is a comprehensive defensive agreement that “encompasses all military means,” including armed forces, nuclear cooperation, and intelligence sharing. Pakistan has openly offered its nuclear program to Saudi Arabia, indicating it “will make available” if needed. Through SMDA, Pakistan would directly support Saudi Arabia in areas of military training, advisory services around defense, military production, and maximizing technology capacity.
Pakistan is the only country from the Muslim world that possesses the world’s sixth-largest nuclear arsenal, maintaining an estimated stockpile of around 170 warheads. Since 1988, Pakistan has viewed its possession of nuclear weapons as a means to deter potential aggression from its neighboring enemy, India, through the “minimum credible deterrence “doctrine.” The country has consistently boycotted and voted against any negotiations on the Treaty of the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) for self-defense against India, a nuclear-weapon-equipped state. Pakistan’s position as a nuclear state holds immense significance for Saudi Arabia, a non-nuclear state, as it shields them from potential security threats. India and Pakistan, despite reaching close to a full-scale war several times, have never used nuclear weapons against each other, perhaps because of the unimaginable destruction of both nations. According to political analyst, Moneef Ammash al-Harbi, the agreement sent “a message to regional and international parties.”
With the rise of weapon manufacturing and technology, this agreement is purposely crafted to support Saudi defense autonomy in the long run. As mentioned by Eleonora Ardemangi from the Atlantic Council, the pact would directly aid Saudi Arabia in areas of defense industry collaboration, technology transfer, military co-production, capacity building and training, benefiting Saudi Arabia far more than Pakistan. This NATO-like defense commitment between the two countries holds far more importance for Saudi Arabia as it is surrounded by Israel on one side and Iran-backed Houthis on the other. As far as the widely argued claim of whether Saudi Arabia would enjoy protection under Pakistan’s ‘nuclear umbrella’ is concerned, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, mentioned to a Pakistani TV that “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available according to this agreement”. As previously mentioned, the Saudi official, when speaking with Reuters, also confirmed, “this is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means,” meaning Pakistan is expected to extend its nuclear capabilities and protection to Saudi Arabia when needed.
Another key advantage Saudi Arabia gained that has been completely overlooked by the media is oil. Pakistan claims to have discovered what could be the fourth largest offshore oil and gas reserves, however, it lacks substantial investment and infrastructure for extraction for offshore drilling. This could be a booming opportunity for Saudi Arabia to invest in oil and gain a stable supply of oil at a South Asian market price. SMDA is not only a defense agreement, but could also be seen as a strategic extension of influence and partnership for future long term projects.
The defense program ensures long-term autonomy for Saudi Arabia, as SMDA diversifies its security guarantees and reduces reliance on the U.S. as an ally, which failed to prevent the Israeli strike on Qatar. For Pakistan, the SMDA further strengthens the historic and strategic partnership between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Through this partnership, Pakistan has also extended the older agreement of Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA), which promises a multi-billion dollar investment deal from Saudi Arabia to flow in key sectors of Pakistan’s economy and create jobs.
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement would protect Saudi Arabia from threats posed by Houthis in Yemen, who have targeted major Saudi cities, including Makkah and Jeddah, in 2017 and 2019, while providing border security and strength against the rising tension in the Middle East. This deal is a sign that Riyadh is no longer willing to solely rely on the United States for security, changing the reliability of and dynamics of Saudi-U.S. relations. Signing the SMDA with another influential Muslim country strengthens Saudi Arabia’s standing and influence in the Islamic world, indicating a firm commitment to Muslim brotherhood. This historic agreement can influence other Middle Eastern and Gulf states to build trust and reliance for security and investments, due to growing distrust in the U.S.’ willingness to defend them.
The SMDA agreement deeply hinders the Saudi-India relationship, as India considers Pakistan an enemy, and is “studying” the pact’s implications for national security and regional stability, as indicated by India’s Ministry of External Affairs. In recent history, Saudi Arabia and India have had a strong relationship based on trade, investments, and energy sectors. In the fiscal years of 2024-2025, the bilateral trade between the two countries reached $41.88 billion, with Saudi Arabia becoming India’s fifth-largest trading partner, while India rose to the second largest. Simultaneously, the new agreement carries a new possibility to boost China’s power in the region, given its long-standing alliance with Pakistan. Saudi Arabia’s decision to advance its uranium enrichment as a part of a diversification program with Chinese support is also tied to regional nuclear ambitions.
The Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan elevates the decade-long security partnership and friendship between the two countries while changing broader international relations between the states. SMDA also acts as a key symbol of declining influence of the United States in the Middle East, shifting military and strategic alliances from India and the U.S. to China and Pakistan.