The Looming Threat of The Big One
On September 29, 2025, a 6.9-magnitude earthquake struck the Cebu region of the Philippines at 10:00 p.m. local time, killing 72 people and making it the deadliest earthquake in the region since 2013. The Philippines is no stranger to earthquakes; located above the tectonic Ring of Fire, the island nation has experienced more than 2,400 earthquakes in the later months of 2025, from September 25th to October 9th. Yet this earthquake begs the question: what went wrong in this particular instance, and can the Philippines prevent similar catastrophes from occurring?
Delving deeper into the details of the Cebu earthquake, it primarily affected Bogo City, as well as the SM Cares Village. The village was specifically designed with “disaster resilient homes” for survivors of Super Typhoon Haiyan, which killed over 6,000 people in 2013. The earthquake decimated local infrastructure, with at least 11 bridges impassable, local hospitals unusable, and communications down in three municipalities. The quake also followed a tropical storm that occurred the week prior, increasing the frequency of landslides, with over 340 aftershocks having been recorded since the main quake. Additionally, an emergency tsunami warning was put into place following the quake, though it was quickly dispelled the day after. Following the disaster, the government declared a state of calamity in Cebu province, and a number of international aid organizations stepped in to help mitigate the damage. For instance, Singapore’s Red Cross branch donated 50,000 SGD to the Philippines for emergency humanitarian assistance, and the United Nations International Organization for Migration was placed on standby in the area to help support displaced people. However, the severity of this damage has instilled anxiety within Filipinos, namely, a larger concern about whether their nation is ready for what they call “The Big One.”
A joint study in 2004 conducted by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, and Japan International Cooperation Agency examined the ramifications of a possible 7.2 or greater magnitude earthquake striking Metro Manila, deeming this disastrous earthquake as The Big One. The quake would be triggered by movement in the Marikina Valley fault system, which extends from Trinidad to Laguna, and could even cause Taal Volcano to erupt in Batangas. The initial study conducted in 2004 projected that the death toll in Manila alone would be around 33,500, but the study is set to be revisited in the coming months to account for modern populations and building developments. Since 2004, the nation has undertaken a number of development projects to better mitigate earthquake vulnerability, such as the National Disaster Response Plan 2024, which was launched in response to a deadly earthquake in Myanmar. The plan allocated funding towards improving the nation’s climate resiliency and response time to natural disasters, yet these developments still failed to prevent the calamity of the Cebu earthquake. Scientists have even recommended using an app to self-assess whether one’s property is earthquake-proof, though use of this survey is neither required nor enforced. Alongside recent studies that show that high-rises in Manila fall short of earthquake safety requirements, the future impact of The Big One may be more dire than previously anticipated.
The threat of an earthquake and subsequent tsunamis and floods has always loomed large within the greater Indo-Pacific region, and recent quakes have devastated large parts of Taiwan, Myanmar, and Japan. Yet while the threat may be unavoidable, the Cebu earthquake reaffirms the importance of preparedness for such disasters. While the Philippines has made advancements in these fields, the severity of this devastation to even “disaster-resilient” homes serves as a warning that the country’s infrastructure needs immense improvements if it hopes to withstand the next large quake.