A Century of Unfinished Borders: The Struggle for Peace in the Fergana Valley
Although once ruled collectively by the USSR, today Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are independent ethnic states divided into arbitrary regions dating back to the 1920s. A century later, these boundaries remain among Central Asia’s most contested borders. Decades without meaningful regional coordination have left the region beset by unending unrest, periodic violence, and recurring conflict.
A targeted region of this reorganization was the Fergana Valley, a rich and fertile area shared by Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Kyrgyz, which Stalin unevenly and haphazardly divided among the newly formed socialist republics. When the Soviet Union collapsed, thousands of locals became stuck living as minorities within opposing ethnic states. Stalin’s National Territorial Delimitation policy, implemented to weaken nationality and prevent anti-Soviet movements, continues to destabilize the region a century later. For example, within Kyrgyzstan’s borders, there are six enclaves – foreign territories fully enclosed within a country’s borders – four of which are territories of Uzbekistan and two of which are territories of Tajikistan.
These borders are also ethnically inaccurate in relation to their designated states. For example, the Sokh District, comprising two Uzbek enclaves within Kyrgyzstan, is almost entirely ethnically Tajik. Although explanations for this setup vary, some claim that Russian cartographers mistakenly identified the Tajik population as Uzbeks when detailing the area. Others argue it was pragmatically designed to follow the river’s natural shape. Regardless, while these enclaves represented a chronic point of tension along national borders, militant threats in the late 1990s added a new layer of instability.
Violence disturbed the region when the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a terrorist group from Namangan, Uzbekistan, began terrorizing Kyrgyz villages in Southern Kyrgyzstan in 1999. Their goal was to overthrow Uzbekistan’s government, and they sought to cross through Kyrgyzstan to reach Uzbekistan more quickly.
Their presence was a significant source of destabilized relations between the nations. While Tajikistan claimed that there were no IMU forces within its borders, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan disagreed on how to address the threat. The result was stricter and more dangerous border control between the three countries, which included sections littered with landmines. These early threats cemented mistrust between the three states and turned their borders into heavily militarized zones. The increased surveillance and restrictions not only stifled trade and mobility but also reinforced ethnic divisions that would later explode into open violence.
The ethnic divide between Uzbeks and Kyrgyz intensified in 2010, when violence once more erupted near the Uzbek-Kyrgyz border from June 10 to 14. In the Kyrgyz cities of Osh, Jalal-Abad, and Bazar-Kurgan — all three of which contain significant Uzbek populations — xenophobia and political disagreements escalated into mass violence, targeted attacks, and killings. Even Kyrgyz authorities, accountable for quelling the violence and protecting all citizens, were seen contributing to attacks on Uzbeks. Authorities confirmed the death count at 356 people, with estimates reaching as high as 900.
The poorly shaped borders under Soviet leadership had sown the seeds for ethnic conflict along today’s borders. During periods of conflict, Uzbeks and Tajiks in enclaves inside Kyrgyzstan would have limited access to the mainland and often experienced harassment or violence from patrol guards when entering and leaving their enclaves. Parts of the Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan border had been closed off since the 2010 riots, highlighting the tense relations in the region. Although Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan eventually reopened their borders in 2017, tensions remained high in the Fergana Valley region, often exploding into violence. Despite this, state leaders would typically do little to resolve agitations, instead exacerbating them.
This became especially clear in 2021, when decades-long distrust and minor disputes along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border erupted into a lethal armed conflict. Immediately, border and state authorities escalated the conflict, attacking border posts and firing at villages. The conflict resulted in 55 dead and hundreds injured. Within days, the two sides signed a ceasefire. Still, neither government attempted to find a more permanent solution, so violence was likely to recur.
In January 2022, the ceasefire between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, established the previous year, was broken by another border skirmish. By August, the skirmish had erupted into a bloody conflict involving border security and the national armies. At its conclusion, 94 people on both sides had been killed. Although the two nations eventually signed a peace deal, the recurring violent outbreaks highlighted the fragility of regional stability and the lack of a permanent solution among state leaders. The persistence of these clashes reflects not only unresolved ethnic grievances but a lack of state intervention to improve relations. For these ethnic conflicts to subside and for long-term peace to prevail among the three nations, serious negotiations between their leaders would be necessary, something that had not yet occurred until this year.
On March 31, 2025, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in the Fergana Valley to discuss resolving their border disputes and ending violence in the region. This historic meeting marked a significant step away from their history of mistrust and aggression and represented a critical step towards peace. The main point of discussion was the Fergana Valley and nearby border disputes, where much of the post-Soviet borders remained inadequately defined. In March, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan finally agreed on a border delimitation, marking the lead-up to the March 31 Khujand Treaty. Despite past reneges and cyclical conflicts that raise doubts about the potential for long-term peace, the meetings between the heads of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are the first genuine attempt by all three nations to resolve and restore peace in the Fergana Valley. Many underlying issues remain unresolved between the three states. However, the Khujand Treaty provides the first steps towards a peaceful future in the Fergana Valley.