From Merkel to Meloni: The Shifting Landscape of European Migration Policy
From Berlin to Rome to Warsaw, Europe’s anti-immigration rhetoric has moved from the political margins into center stage. Over the past decade, rising migrant numbers have pushed far-right, populist parties to the forefront of electoral politics. With the European Union facing its “highest number of asylum applications since 2016,” the region is simply unprepared to process such high numbers of migrants. Recent elections across the EU have highlighted a surge in this far-right trend, as evidenced by Germany’s AfD becoming the second strongest party and France’s center-left coalition narrowly defeating the far-right. While governments point to rising asylum numbers, the rise of anti-immigration politics is more closely tied to structural failures in EU governance and short-sighted policymaking.
The story begins with the EU’s Common European Asylum System (CEAS), the legal policy framework that has guided EU regulations for years. At the heart of this is the Dublin Regulation, which contains a controversial clause that states the responsibility of evaluating an asylum claim falls to the first port of entry. In other words, the country where the asylum seeker first arrives in the European Union is responsible for processing and assessing their claim. However, the nature of the Schengen area, a border-free travel zone, facilitates movement between states. This complicates enforcement, as asylum seekers move between states while the burden remains with the first country of entry. As a result, despite the dispersion of migrants across the region, there is an unequal inflow of migrants in the legal systems of frontline states, especially those along Mediterranean and Balkan routes. Such structural weaknesses were exposed in 2015, when the arrival of over 1.2 million asylum seekers overwhelmed the system. In 2026, the first major reform in over a decade will take effect, aiming to fast-track asylum procedures and improve cooperation. The new pact was passed in May 2024, involving stricter border controls, increased deportations, and accountability between states, ensuring states share responsibility through financial support or relocation.
However, even before its implementation, critics have pointed out possible humanitarian consequences of privileging border security over migrant protection. Additionally, many states fail to recognize the importance of migrants for labor and economic stability. Above all, there is growing concern for the unilateral, far-right uproar in European politics, as even traditionally open states move towards more hard-line approaches.
Germany’s transition from Former Chancellor Angela Merkel's open border policies to the strict, security-focused policies perfectly illustrates the mounting political and social pressures in Europe. From 2015 to 2016, Merkel’s humanitarian policies socially strained Germany and fueled the rise of the far-right AfD which has become one of the strongest parties in the country. Now, Germany is now at the forefront of anti-immigration policy with the Interior Minister Dobrindt’s recent participation in a symbolic summit in the Zugspitze, which included leaders from Austria, Denmark, and Poland who all have harsh migration stances.
The German government also introduced several measures such as limited asylum benefits, deportations of convicted migrants, and stricter border control despite criticism from the wider EU continent and German police unions who describe these measures as being largely ineffective. Public sentiment appears to reflect the government’s efforts, as the percentage of respondents in an opinion poll who felt Germany should accept fewer refugees rose from 38 percent to 68 percent over the past decade. Germany’s shift reflects a broader rightward movement across Europe. As Geert Wilders, an anti-immigration Freedom Party leader, commented: “A new wind is blowing in Europe.”
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni implemented a unique strategy by partnering with Albania to externally process over 36 thousand asylum claims outside of Italy. Despite court opposition, Meloni has expanded the proposal and signaled plans for mass deportations to detention centres in Albania. In addition, Meloni has proposed a list of supposedly safe countries that would allow Italy to return migrants to, despite the European Court of Justice (ECJ) reminding the government that their definition of “safe” doesn’t necessarily mean all citizens are entitled to protection. Her efforts have even inspired six other EU states to consider the possibility of returning migrants to Syria.
Moreover, recent incidents in Poland have prompted nationwide anti-immigration protests in over 80 towns. Following a violent stabbing in June, where the perpetrator was a foreign national, the conservative Konfederacja influenced far-right protests that involved racist slurs and slogans across Poland. As pressure rose, Poland suspended the right to claim asylum in an attempt to deter migrants from entering the country. EU leaders have supported the decision, despite concerns it may violate international law. But unlike the previous cases, it is important to note that only 2.2 percent of Poland’s population is foreign born, shockingly low compared to other European countries and a strong testament to the power of public opinion and misinformation. Additionally, studies by Deloitte and UNHCR estimate that Ukrainian refugees account for 2.7 percent of the Polish GDP, yet this rhetoric is completely absent from their domestic politics. Europe seems to be embracing this new wave of politics as Members of Parliament (MEPs) voted for legal changes that give authorities more options to deport asylum seekers, including sending them to countries they have never visited.
The diffusion of anti-immigration politics has not gone unchallenged. Spain’s plan to regularise half a million undocumented migrants contrasts with Europe’s tightening borders. Despite opposing politicians and critics, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez asserted that Spain will choose the path of “dignity, community, and justice.” This proposal is sponsored by a citizen’s initiative with signatures from more than 700,000 people, 900 social organizations and the Catholic Church. There are currently an estimated 500,000 to a million undocumented people that could benefit from this policy. With leaders across Europe dismissing the importance of immigration, Spain is one of the few countries promoting immigration’s economic benefits. With a slow growing economy, the policy could address urgent labor shortages, particularly in construction where an additional 700,000 workers are needed.
Europe’s migration landscape is at a crossroads. Over the past decade, rising numbers of asylum seekers, coupled with structural weaknesses in EU governance, have fueled a shift toward hard-line policies across much of the continent. Germany, Italy, and Poland illustrate how political pressures, public sentiment, and security concerns have driven formerly welcoming countries to adopt tougher stances. Yet, Spain’s bold plan to regularise hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants demonstrates that a different path, one grounded in economic pragmatism, social responsibility, and humanitarian values, is still possible. As the EU navigates new reforms and the rising far-right momentum, the coming years will test whether European nations can balance border security with humanitarian needs, economic priorities, and regional cooperation.