Power Projection in the Dark: Iran’s Status Anxiety and Digital Repression
Iranians took to the streets on December 28, 2025 to protest their authoritarian government in seemingly the largest demonstration since the Islamic Revolution. Similar to previous protest crackdowns, security forces have responded with deadly crowd control tactics. The Iranian government has acknowledged the death of 3,000 civilians, though external sources place the death toll between 7,000 and 35,000.
The protests were triggered by the collapse of Iran’s rial, which plummeted to 1.48 million to the dollar on December 28, 2025, sparking protests among Tehran’s merchants who were unable to conduct business during the economic freefall. Civilians soon joined protestors, and demonstrations spread throughout Iran’s 31 provinces within the week.
Although the protests began as a strictly economic matter, they soon evolved into a larger call for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Angered by decades of repression, Iranians demanded a government that upholds human rights. This pattern is not new: as in 2019, the economic crash gave impetus to a larger movement against clerical rule.
The Iranian government employed a deadly pair of strategies to combat the nationwide protests: violent repression and widespread internet blackouts. Repression came in the form of riot police, tear gas, and live ammunition, while internet restriction took on a more indirect role.
A complete internet blackout began on January 8, 2026, effectively removing Iran from the global internet network; a move that does not necessarily align with the path that Tehran was expected to pursue. Since imposing a similar shutdown in 2019, the state has been developing an internal Iranian internet independent from global connectivity that can be used to manage networks within the country, dubbed the National Information Network (NIN). The NIN could be used to influence internet access for Iranians, while maintaining state-controlled networks and infrastructure. Last month’s heavy-handed shutdown, however, undermined the NIN itself, plunging the state into complete digital darkness. NetBlocks, an internet monitoring organization, estimates that the complete network interruption cost Iran $2.8 to $4.3 million per day, crippling the already dire economic situation. After being throttled for 20 days, the internet has been partially restored to Iranians as protests have subsided.
Tehran’s decision to dismantle the nation’s internet access, in tandem with bloody repression tactics in its streets, was an attempt at showcasing power at home while maintaining the appearance of control. However unsuccessful, controlling the flow of information out of the country could allow Tehran to conceal protests and the deadly crackdown that ensued on the international stage. Though the state appeared to hold the alternative choice of maintaining the NIN, it chose to further jeopardize its economy in an effort to completely restrict connectivity. The considerable financial toll that this took on Iran’s economy suggests that the government places priority on power projection over economic strength.
Power projection is defined as the capability of a nation to leverage its political, economic, informational, or military power to deploy and maintain forces in and from dispersed locations. In the case of Iran, however, this definition falls short. It fails to acknowledge the role of intangible power, particularly that which exists in controlling the narrative that exists around a state. Tehran’s internet blackouts are not just about controlling Iranians; it is a tactic intended to shroud the theocracy from the eyes of all those outside its borders and project a more powerful image.
President Trump responded to the situation in Iran with a fleet of online messages, promising Iranians on January 13, 2026 that “help is on its way” and refusing to meet with Iranian officials until the state ceased its deadly crowd control tactics. The messages evolved into military threats on January 26, 2026 when a U.S. aircraft carrier and three accompanying warships arrived in the Middle East, supplemented with warnings of a strike against Iran if talks over its nuclear program fall apart. The U.S. military buildup has been explained with mixed messaging from the Trump administration, which initially threatened to intervene in order to quell nationwide unrest, though more recently, has voiced the need to stamp out Iran’s ambition to redevelop its nuclear program.
This is not the first time that foreign actors have threatened the Islamic Republic’s sovereignty. Iran is afflicted with a status anxiety grounded in a history of political upheaval and foreign interference that far predates the Islamic Revolution. Throughout the nineteenth century, for example, Iran experienced repeated foreign intervention by Britain and Russia, reducing the autonomy of its leading figures. Iranian sovereignty was once again challenged in 1953, when the U.S. and UK orchestrated the toppling of Prime Minister Mohammad Modaddegh.
The historical subversion of Iranian power set the stage for status anxiety to take root as a key pillar of Iranian ideology during the Islamic Revolution. The foundation of the revolutionary slogan “Neither East nor West” cemented independence from foreign powers as a pillar of Iranian governance.
In the context of this history, Iran has responded to status anxiety in a manner that attempts to project power, whether real or illusory. The manner in which Iran handled protests was influenced not only by current affairs but also a history of foreign intervention, culminating in violence in its streets and a larger attempt at controlling its international image.