Cuba’s Oil Supply Dwindles: U.S. Involvement in Latin America Spurs Backlash
On January 29, 2026, President Donald Trump issued an executive order effectively blocking Cuba from acquiring oil imports. While the order didn’t put a definitive end to the communist country’s ability to obtain this valuable natural resource, it did establish an additional tariff that would be placed on any goods imported to the U.S. from nations that supply Cuba with oil, either directly or indirectly. Multiple scholars have drawn parallels between this measure and the Monroe Doctrine, which served as a pathway for the United States’ government to assert indirect rule over Latin America. Trump has backed this consequential disruption to the nation’s energy division by asserting that its respective government “has taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States.” Namely, as put forth by the Trump administration, in that it “provides support for numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States.” Researchers specialized in international economic relations cite this order as an attempt to spur a governmental regime change in Cuba, one that more closely aligns with the Trump administration’s self-serving foreign policy decisions. As foreign governments grapple with this U.S.-issued ultimatum, it is significant to emphasize the impact that this executive order will have on Cuba beyond just its energy sector.
Oil and oil products are a cornerstone of Cuba’s energy supply. A 2023 profile on the Cuban energy system holds that 84 percent of the country’s energy mix is constituted by oil, with natural gas making up a much smaller share (8.9 percent) of this pool. This overwhelming dependency on oil adversely affects the population through countless detrimental chains of cause-and-effect. Closely stemming from the root of this crisis, blackouts have plagued multiple provinces, prompting Cuban president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, and top diplomats to make public statements, calling attention to the gross violation of sovereignty that has been committed on behalf of the U.S. Diaz-Canal has discussed near-future plans to “ramp up solar generation and use renewable resources to ensure electricity for vital services, including hospitals, elderly care centers, and isolated regions.”
In response to the recent tariff, Mexico, a major oil supplier to Cuba, has been forced to weigh whether providing this essential commodity is becoming too costly. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has been actively trying to play an intermediary role, attempting to differentiate between business affairs and humanitarian assistance. In doing so, Sheinbaum seems to be stalling the matter by testing the boundary of what is deemed, by the Trump administration, as a violation of the executive order. Sheinbaum has openly acknowledged the fact that a complete cut-off from Mexican oil will inevitably result in a humanitarian crisis for Cuba. Giving in to the tariffs would benefit the domestic economy and its workers, however, “Mexico has had a long and deep history of support and friendship with Cuba”.
The Mexican government bearing the brunt of this trade tension is a direct result of the recent capture and arrest of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. Prior to the ousting of Maduro, Venezuela served as Cuba’s primary source of oil. With the recent swearing in of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, questions loom large as to the nature of future diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Venezuela. On Saturday, Rodriguez denounced “the U.S. operation as a violation of the United Nations founding charter and a unilateral attempt to force regime change, but soon adopted a more conciliatory tone.” In conjunction with threatening remarks made by President Trump, it seems unlikely that Maduro’s stand-in will follow in the resistant footsteps of her predecessor.
Ongoing international crises such as the one examined, highlight the need for economic diversification in preventing societal collapse and promoting sovereignty. Although revamping energy allocation may suffice as a short-run solution, developing policies that create a more self-sufficient Cuba in regards to energy will be critical to long-term sustainability. While Latin American nations, such as Mexico and Venezuela, may be in favor of maintaining strict boundaries of state sovereignty, threats of U.S. military intervention and economic penalization both make taking a definitive stance strenuous. Moving forward, leaders of these nations will be forced to decide whether to prioritize regional sovereignty or the looming U.S. ultimatum.