Foreign Involvement Exacerbating Moroccan-Algerian Relations

Despite their geographic proximity and shared Maghreb identity, the diplomatic relationship between Morocco and Algeria has long been turbulent. Morocco and Algeria’s economies face similar barriers to growth, and both countries bear the burden of transitioning towards greener energy sectors in light of climate change and global conflicts. However, their collective potential is hindered by ongoing hostilities. One of the largest sources of tension is Algeria’s firm support for Western Sahara’s independence, which stands at odds with Moroccan claims of sovereignty over the territory. Decades of debate on this single issue have spoiled relations between the two, culminating with Algeria fully cutting diplomatic ties with Morocco in 2021. 

With a closed mutual border and the recent mutual expulsion of each other’s ambassadors, the risk of open conflict between Morocco and Algeria has risen considerably. In early September, two Moroccan jet-skiers were shot dead off the coast of Algeria after they mistakenly strayed into territorial waters. News of the incident shed light on the grim state of Moroccan-Algerian relations, and fueled fears that the countries’ relationship has been irreparably damaged. In the absence of diplomatic avenues to peacefully mediate disputes, Morocco and Algeria run the risk of inadvertently waging war–– the costs of which increase directly with their growing military budgets. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that Morocco and Algeria comprised nearly three-quarters of North Africa’s military spending in 2022, despite accounting for just over five percent of the region’s population. Such drastic upticks in military funding illuminate a mutual, underlying distrust between Algeria and Morocco that has intensified under the termination of essential diplomatic channels.

Further exacerbating tensions is the American and Russian interest in Morocco and Algeria, respectively. Since the Cold War, North Africa has been the site of a pseudo-proxy war between the two competing powers, as each seeks to establish a greater economic and military stronghold in the region. Algeria procures over 75 percent of their total arms supply from Russia, and the two have conducted extensive bilateral naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea over the past five years. As the waters around Morocco and Algeria are in close proximity to the Strait of Gibraltar, one of the world’s busiest maritime chokepoints, naval influence is a significant determinant of regional power. American involvement in Morocco tells a similar tale of economic cooperation through free-trade agreements. Additionally, Washington has worked to establish deep diplomatic ties with Rabat. In 2004, the U.S. elevated Morocco to Major Non-NATO Ally status, and in 2020, former U.S. president Donald Trump officially recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, formally declaring Washington’s stance in the highly contentious geopolitical issue. 

The injection of foreign politics into North Africa capitalizes on regional differences and only serves to bolster diplomatic entrenchment between Morocco and Algeria. Furthermore, foreign policy think tanks have warned of a regional strategic contest between Russia and the U.S. since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Experts interpret any operation of Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean as a threatening show of Russian force in NATO's backyard. Similarly, the preoccupation of Russia with its war in Ukraine presents the U.S. with the chance to gain key footholds in Algeria in an effort to undermine Russian influence in the region. By reviving Cold War efforts to exert influence in North Africa, the U.S. and Russia bring unnecessary competition to a region already afflicted with longstanding diplomatic and neo-colonial grievances. While American and Russian involvement may be objectively beneficial to the economic and societal stability of Morocco and Algeria, the fact that their aid falls along historical lines of division exacerbates pre-existing tensions. In the interest of the region’s stability, and in the continued presence of foreign great power politics in North Africa, Morocco and Algeria must work to restore essential diplomatic relations.