Tracking Al-Shabaab Amidst Recent Attacks

Since Al-Shabaab’s rise to prominence in 2006, they have been consistently stirring trouble in Somalia and elsewhere in East Africa. The group was formed originally as part of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a loose political organization used to address the lawlessness and disorder in Somalia that followed the fall of President Siad Barre in 1991 at the onset of the Somali Civil War. After Ethiopia invaded Somalia, due to their goal of flushing out rebel forces, they defeated the ICU, expelling them from Mogadishu. This radicalized Al-Shabaab, and they moved to southern Somalia, where they began organizing full-fledged assaults on Ethiopian forces.

In the years following, Al-Shabaab has sewn chaos in the region through suicide bombings in Uganda and shootings in Kenya, aligning with Al-Qaeda, and launching various attacks in Mogadisuhu and elsewhere in Somalia. These attacks have primarily targeted Somali government officials and members of the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM), a regional peacekeeping operation designed and carried out by the African Union. Recently, Al-Shabaab has made numerous headlines for insurgent acts across Somalia.

In early February, Al-Shabaab militants staged an attack on General Gordon's military base in the capital of Mogadishu. The attack led to the deaths of four Emirati troops and an officer from Bahrain. The base is operated by the United Arab Emirates as part of the nation’s efforts to ensure security in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea, amidst increasing accounts of Somali Piracy, which hit its worst levels in the mid to late 2000s. The UAE’s Ministry of Defense was quick to condemn the terrorist attack, with a senior Emirati official writing on X “No treacherous act will prevent us from continuing the message of security and safety and combating extremism and terrorism in all its forms.” Al-Shabaab justified their actions online, claiming that the UAE is an enemy of Islam for aiding the Somali government in their quest to eradicate Al-Shabaab from their country.

Al-Shabaab militants also recently seized a helicopter that was contracted by the UN. Eight people were in the helicopter when it was captured in the insurgency-controlled region of Galmudug. The crew was made up of staff from Iqarus, a medical care organization specializing in conflict-heavy situations across the globe. The helicopter was reportedly intercepted after making an emergency landing to address an engine failure while en route to the village of Wisil, for a medical evacuation.

These two actions come amidst news that the United States conducted an airstrike against Al-Shabaab on Thursday, February 15th, allegedly killing two Cuban doctors who have been held hostage by the group for nearly five years. The U.S. Department of Defense says there is no credible evidence that the doctors were killed, despite Al-Shabaab’s claims. Regardless, they are launching an investigation.

Nevertheless, Al-Shabaab's activity in Somalia and greater East Africa signals that the terrorist organization is still alive and well despite years of effort from the AMISOM, Somali national security forces, and support from the international community, including the United States. The future of Al-Shabaab will be dependent on various factors, including the effectiveness of efforts to combat them by these groups, as well as success in undermining their operational capabilities, financial networks, and ideological appeal. Nonetheless, for the near future, at least it seems clear that Al-Shabaab will continue to be a pest and remain committed to battling the Somali government and its allies.