Macron’s Challenge: Leading Europe While Losing France

When Emmanuel Macron first assumed the French presidency in 2017, he promised bold action to restore France’s economic dynamism and political vitality. As he took office, Macron was confronted with a litany of challenges including high unemployment, intertwined concerns over immigration and terrorism, and a pervasive sense of fractured national unity. Macron offered ambitious policies, from pension reform and corporate tax cuts to the “white whales” of overhauling the European Union’s political and economic systems, including proposals to strengthen EU governance and strategic autonomy. However, the tension between his domestic reforms and European ambitions has come to define his presidency.

Eight years later, his government is anything but revitalized. France faces mounting economic concerns and widening political chasms. Last year, President Macron’s gamble of calling snap parliamentary elections resulted in complete parliamentary deadlock. While centrists and the left managed to block the far-right National Rally from taking power, the elections yielded no viable governing coalition. The collapse of François Bayrou’s government on September 9 forced Macron to appoint his fifth prime minister since May 2022, Sébastien Lecornu. While Lecornu now faces protests echoing the same domestic political crises that toppled his predecessors, Macron continues to present himself abroad as Europe’s indispensable statesman, championing European Union (EU) reform, strategic autonomy, and a hard line against Russia. However, whether or not the discrepancy between Macron's desire for influence abroad can be reconciled with France’s instability at home remains an open question. France’s geopolitical standing and the cohesion of the EU hang in the balance. 

In the arena of foreign policy, Macron has been at his strongest. With the retirement of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2021, he has seized the opportunity to assert himself in the leadership vacuum in Europe. His rhetoric of “strategic autonomy” has been a central pillar of that claim. From the onset of his presidency, Macron has argued that Europe must build the capacity to defend itself and protect its interests without depending excessively on the United States. While these calls did not immediately gain widespread traction, they have been especially vindicated by the return of President Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 and Washington’s subsequent volatility and occasional hostility toward Europe. Global shocks from Trump’s bombardment of tariffs and a perception of an increasingly unreliable America have reinforced Macron’s case for a Europe less tethered to the whims of U.S. politics.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the stakes of European security even clearer, and Macron has positioned himself at the forefront of Europe’s response. Before the invasion began in early 2022, Macron traveled to Moscow, meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeking to defuse tensions with Ukraine. In the years since the war began, France has delivered billions of euros’ worth of military aid and imposed sanctions in line with other European partners. Along with the United Kingdom, Macron’s France is spearheading the “coalition of the willing”, a group of 35 countries, with 26 agreeing to send troops or provide assistance to Ukraine after its war with Russia concludes. By championing these causes, Macron has cultivated an image of being indispensable abroad for both himself and for France, portraying himself as a counterweight to both Moscow and Washington.

Domestically, Macron’s promises have not delivered the same robust strength. France, the eurozone’s second biggest economy, faces a precarious economic outlook fueled by high borrowing costs, a growing debt, overzealous government spending, and the largest budget deficit among EU countries. In 2024, France’s budget deficit reached €168.6 billion, representing 5.8 percent of its economic output. Last year, two weeks before the second round of voting began in snap parliamentary elections, the European Commission reprimanded France and threatened to impose penalties for noncompliance with EU financial discipline regulations. For Macron, who entered office with lofty promises of economic renewal, these figures expose the widening gap between his reformist vision and reality.

The political gridlock of the country has stymied meaningful and urgently needed progress on France’s financial woes. Opposition parties unseated centrist François Bayrou in response to his unpopular proposal to tighten the budget by €44 billion. Prior to his resignation in the wake of losing a confidence vote, Bayrou cautioned, “You have the power to bring down the government, but you do not have the power to erase reality. Reality will remain relentless. Expenses will continue to rise, and the burden of debt, already unbearable, will grow heavier and more costly.” Intensifying political fragmentation in France continues to put the economy at risk, as parties prioritize partisan battles over addressing mounting debt and deficits. The National Rally on the far-right and France Unbowed on the far-left appear more intent on seizing power and squeezing Macron’s centrist government than working to remedy the situation. Bayrou’s defeat in the confidence vote highlights the vulnerability of Macron’s parliamentary majority, turning the push for fiscal discipline into a politically explosive issue.

In the midst of this financial trouble and political inaction, Paris has faced additional pressure from credit rating agencies. On September 12, Fitch Ratings, a U.S.-based global financial rating agency, downgraded France from an “AA-” to an “A+”, a decrease from very high to high credit quality. While the agency stated the country’s outlook remained stable, they noted a high and rising debt ratio, a weak record of fiscal compliance with the EU standards, and a high 2025 deficit as concerns. They also pointed to political fragmentation, reporting that, “The government's defeat in a confidence vote illustrates the increased fragmentation and polarization of domestic politics… This instability weakens the political system's capacity to deliver substantial fiscal consolidation…” The downgrade not only damages France’s financial credibility, but also undercuts Macron’s image as a reformer, weakening his ability to project strength at home and abroad.

Macron has become one of the EU’s de facto leaders, but simultaneously, his domestic support is eroding as he stares down worsening economic woes and political fragmentation. If France does not have the financial means or stability to back any policy up with action, Macron’s ability to lead Europe will diminish. During a time of deep uncertainty, marked by the war in Ukraine and unpredictable American tariffs and unreliability, Europe can not afford a weak France. The contradiction between Macron the European statesman and Macron the embattled domestic leader may decide not only his legacy, but Europe’s future direction.