Democracy on Trial: Bolsonaro’s Indictment in a Global Context

Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been charged by the nation’s attorney general with leading a conspiracy to hold onto power by instigating a plot of military insurrection following his electoral loss in 2022. These allegations are the culmination of a two-year police investigation, spurred by an interest in events preceding the three-hour rampage by Bolsonaro’s supporters on January 8, 2023. Following Bolsonaro’s loss of the 2022 election to current President Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva, protestors affiliated with Bolsonaro invaded government buildings in Brasilia and destroyed public property. Further, Bolsonaro’s supporters called for a coup to expel Lula, who had won by only a narrow margin of victory. The riots concluded with Brazil’s Supreme Court vowing to investigate the former president’s role in inciting violence and vandalism through his support and encouragement of the protests. 

Bolsonaro has a notorious history of institutionalizing controversial, far-right policies. His policies accelerating the destruction of the Amazon rainforest and undermining agencies protecting Indigenous rights were especially contentious. In response to COVID-19, he refused to listen to suggestions from the World Health Organization regarding social distancing and masks. Perhaps as a result of his turbulent term, Bolsonaro losing the presidency to Lula was the first instance of an incumbent president failing to win re-election in the 34 years of Brazil’s modern democracy. His opponent and the current president, Lula, had previously held Brazil’s presidential office during the first decade of the century, and despite leaving with high approval ratings, he faced a scandal in 2016 that prevented him from running for office later. Authorities revealed that Lava Jato, a kickback scheme involving the state oil company Petrobras, had flourished within his administration, an incident for which Lula was convicted on corruption charges. Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was elected with strong associations to Lula’s party, and the scandal substantially decreased party support. This contributed to greater support for Bolsonaro, although ultimately the Supreme Court annulled the convictions against Lula in 2021 due to a lack of necessary jurisdiction by the court. In the wake of Bolsonaro’s many controversies, Lula was driven towards another presidential campaign and entered back into the race.

The accusations against Bolsonaro detail several actions taken by the former president and some of his key supporters, with the primary intention of unseating Lula and returning power to the far-right. One of the plots outlined in the indictment involved declaring a “state of siege,” which Bolsonaro would have used to justify the arrests of the Supreme Court justices. Allegedly, he would have granted new powers to the military and called for new elections overseen by his allies. Prosecutors report a darker plot commissioning  a small group of elite military agents to assassinate Lula with poison, and then fatally shooting Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court Justice who had primarily overseen the investigations into Bolsonaro. The indictment says the assassination plan had been presented to Bolsonaro, despite his denial of having any knowledge of the plot. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face between 38 and 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro responded to the indictment on Instagram and X, stating that, “the trick of accusing democratic opposition leaders of plotting coups is not something new.” He went on to compare his situation to that of opposition leaders from Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, all of which are currently led by left-leaning leaders. 

Bolsonaro is no stranger to power struggles and oppression. During Brazil’s military dictatorship, from 1964 to 1985, the regime unleashed complete control and repression. 377 state agents were identified to have been involved in and responsible for cases of torture, murder, and enforced disappearances. Bolsonaro, a former army captain, has gone on record to defend this time in Brazil’s history, extending admiration to the late Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra. In a 2015 Facebook post, Bolsonaro referred to the former director of dictatorship-era torture centers as “a hero,” and the time period as one of “order and success.” His public statements endorsing periods of extreme militaristic control evoke questions and skepticism regarding his complete denial of involvement in the plot against Lula. 

Defending himself, Bolsonaro referred to the charges as “the weaponization of the justice system,” and says the accusations are “nothing more than a desperate attempt to criminalize [his] political movement.” He compared himself to United States President Donald Trump, highlighting the parallels between the two political figures. Incidentally, almost directly after Bolsonaro’s indictment, the Trump Media & Technology Group filed a lawsuit against Justice Moraes, accusing him of censoring right-wing perspectives and voices on social media. This response is a likely extension of Trump’s efforts to apply pressure on foreign justices while protecting a fellow right-wing leader. Both leaders have been indicted on charges related to pushing to overturn elections; however, Trump’s case was dropped as he began returning to power. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, seems to be at his lowest position of power to date. While the U.S. Supreme Court determined that Trump was largely immune from prosecution for his actions, Brazil’s Supreme Court stood firmly against Bolsonaro and his right-wing movement. Trump’s reelection in 2024 has been hailed as part of a global trend including the election of right-wing Javier Milei of Argentina by Bolsonaro’s party members. This wave of right leaning populism, specifically of parties in elections, is recognizable across the world. Italy, for example, elected their first far-right leader since World War II in 2022. These parties and platforms often emphasize national interests over international concerns, as well as efforts to limit immigration. Due to the link between “Trumpism and Bolsonarism,” this wave could also increase funding for mobilization and communication by Brazil’s far-right movement, according to risk intelligence company: Verisk Maplecroft. 

Now, Brazil’s Supreme Court must decide if Bolsonaro will face arrest and trial. The electoral court has already deemed him ineligible to run in the presidential election next term, although several of his allies insist he will be on the ballot and not behind bars. If Bolsonaro does choose to appeal to Brazil’s Supreme Court in an attempt to run for office in 2026, he will likely face systemic opposition. The Supreme Court itself worked to rein in his power throughout his previous term, and if his appeal is successful, he would ultimately face another 15 cases in the electoral court. These cases include accusations against him for improper use of public funds, coordination of misinformation campaigns, and his involvement in several other criminal investigations. Conservative leaders in Brazil have started looking towards Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, the right-wing governor of São Paulo, as a replacement. Marta Arrechte, a political science professor at the University of São Paulo, said de Freitas would be a “much more palatable candidate because he doesn’t have Bolsonaro’s liabilities and because he is making a move to the center.” The ruling against Bolsonaro is a significant change in direction for Latin American politics, since for years, Bolsonaro had pulled Brazil’s conservative movement further right.