China, Japan, South Korea Seek Unity Amid Global Uncertainty

On March 22, the foreign ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea— Takeshi Iwaya, Wang Yi, and Cho Tae-yul— met to discuss ways to boost trilateral cooperation amid rising global tensions. The three diplomats agreed to build mutual trust and tackle shared challenges, including aging populations, falling birth rates, and the transition to renewable energy and sustainable growth. The meeting marked a potential opening for China to engage more closely with two key U.S. allies, but deep divisions remain. Beijing’s military activity near Taiwan, support for North Korea, and alignment with Russia in the war on Ukraine continue to strain ties with Tokyo and Seoul. Both South Korea and Japan, which host thousands of U.S. troops, share Washington’s view that China poses a growing threat to regional security. 

This fragile cooperation reflects the principles of Realpolitik, a theory founded on the teachings of Machiavelli and later theorists like Otto von Bismarck. It holds that a state's survival is dependent on securing power and influence, even at the expense of ideals or long-standing rivalries. In this case, Japan, South Korea, and China may be cooperating not because of deep trust, but because of external threats, such as changes in U.S. foreign policy and regional and global instability. These dangers make pragmatic alliances a necessity. Each country is also working to influence the others’ positions, as seen in Japan and South Korea’s efforts to pressure China over North Korea. 

The issue of North Korea presents a persistent challenge to trilateral alignment. During the March 22 meeting, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul urged Beijing to play a more active role in persuading Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions. He also warned against continued military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, stressing that the North should not be rewarded for its actions as the war in Ukraine continues. While China and North Korea maintain long-standing economic and security ties underpinned by a mutual defense treaty, their relationship is far from seamless. Although Beijing prioritizes stability on the Korean Peninsula, its ability to influence North Korea remains limited, especially as the country forges closer ties with Moscow. As China walks on a tightrope in its relationships with both the U.S. and its allies in East Asia, this balancing act continues to complicate prospects for deeper trilateral cooperation. 

Adding further complexity is China’s ambiguous role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. A February report by Estonia’s foreign intelligence agency revealed that China is helping Russia circumvent sanctions by supplying Western components, which account for 80 percent of the parts used in military drone production. An earlier investigation by Radio Free Europe or Radio Liberty found Chinese firms to be key suppliers of critical minerals used in drones and missiles. Despite this, at a February 18 press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun insisted China supports a political resolution and is “not a party” to the conflict. Days later, during a video call with Vladimir Putin, President Xi Jinping called Russia a “true friend,” reinforcing a narrative of close ties and mutual support. This mix of diplomatic rhetoric and ongoing trade cooperation has led to varied interpretations of China’s role in the conflict. What is clear is that Beijing's close ties with Moscow are seen as a major barrier to trilateral cooperation in both Seoul and Tokyo. 

Geopolitical tensions, particularly those involving Taiwan, underscore the fragility of efforts to deepen regional ties. China remains at odds with Japan and South Korea over key issues, over its increasingly hostile posture in the South China Sea, and its stance on Taiwan. Although Beijing has never ruled Taiwan, it sees the island as a breakaway province that must be reunified by force if necessary. Tensions have escalated since 2016, when Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party regained power and rejected Beijing’s “One China” framework. While Tokyo and Seoul differ in their approaches to Taiwan, shaped by distinct histories, geographies, and security priorities, both now publicly recognize the importance of stability in the Taiwan Strait. The August 2023 U.S.–Japan–South Korea summit emphasized this concern, highlighting a growing consensus that peace in the region is under threat. As tensions escalate, understanding these differing perspectives— and the role of U.S. and allied forces— will be crucial in understanding the risks of a potential wider armed conflict.

Despite these fault lines, the economic aspect of trilateral cooperation offers a more promising future. Foreign Minister Wang Yi has renewed calls for free trade and regional cooperation, urging Japan and South Korea to deepen trust and strengthen economic ties amid growing global tensions. Speaking in Tokyo after talks with his counterparts, he warned that any existing and potential U.S. tariffs remain a key hurdle to economic integration. Meanwhile, Washington has expanded tariffs on Chinese goods and imposed a baseline 10% tariff on Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, nations heavily dependent on Chinese investment. Analysts suggest the measures aim to curb China’s efforts to bypass existing U.S. trade restrictions. The tariffs are expected to hit the region’s poorest economies particularly hard. In response, China, Japan, and South Korea have revived economic talks for the first time in five years, agreeing to accelerate negotiations on a long-stalled free trade deal. Here, trilateral cooperation could gain momentum, driven by shared economic interests even amid political divergence. 

The March 22 meeting highlights both the challenges and the growing need for trilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. As old alliances shift and the global order becomes more fragmented, neighboring countries realize they have no choice but to collaborate to combat rising instability. While security concerns, economic pressures, and political instability continue to test the limits of cooperation, the shared commitment to dialogue provides a vital foundation. In a competitive, deeply interconnected global economy, soft power— through trade, diplomacy, and technology— is becoming just as critical as military might. As the region faces more external pressures, sustained efforts to foster trust and collaboration between China, Japan, and South Korea will be key to ensuring long-term stability and prosperity.