Analysis of Russia’s Wagner Group and its Promotion of Russia’s Geopolitical Interests
After its emergence in the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, the Wagner Group joined the international stage as a pro-Russian actor. Originally a murky, ostensibly private Russian military company, the Wagner Group has become a critical engine of Russia’s foreign policy ambitions. Wagner’s military and security expertise contributes to Russia’s recognition as a great power through global geopolitical repositioning, an ability to undermine Western interests by building a Russian sphere of influence and enhancing Russia’s diplomatic leverage.
The Wagner Group was founded in 2014 by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch and friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Despite his lack of a formal military title, Prigozhin acted as the Wagner Group’s financier, organizer, and strategic overseer. Since its involvement in Crimea, the Wagner Group has played a critical military role in Russia’s early battlefield successes in Ukraine. The Wagner Group became a geopolitical tool to expand Russian influence beyond the former Soviet countries. Under Prigozhin’s leadership, the Wagner Group expanded its sphere of military operations to North Africa while providing plausible deniability regarding Russia’s direct involvement. In short order, Wagner Group units, primarily composed of former Russian military members, began appearing in numerous North African countries, including Sudan, Central African Republic, Madagascar, Libya, Lesotho, and Botswana. Here, Wagner provided a wide range of services, including but not limited to security for high-level government officials, disinformation campaigns, assassinations, military campaigns, and insurgencies.
This growing autonomy and increased influence eventually brought the Wagner Group into conflict with Russia itself. On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin led the Wagner Group in an insurrection against Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. They successfully seized the southern city of Rostov and faced almost no resistance as they marched toward the capital. The next day, however, Prigozhin called off the march, and the Wagner Group dispersed. Rumors circulated of a deal between Prigozhin and Putin to concentrate Wagner troops in African operations. Two months later, Prigozhin and other senior Wagner leadership died in a plane crash while flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg. The West accused Putin of orchestrating Prigozhin's assassination, citing his history of eliminating political opponents. However, the Kremlin denied the claims and called the allegations an “absolute lie.” This incident further destabilized Wagner’s operations, raising questions about the future of Russia’s paramilitary influence abroad.
After Prigozhin’s death, the Wagner Group fragmented. United Kingdom intelligence officials reported that former units of the Wagner Group joined the Russian National Guard and other Russian state and paramilitary units. Anton Yelizarov, a senior Wagner operator, confirmed the integration of Wagner units into the government, stating the troops “work for the good of Russia.” The Wagner Group currently holds close ties with the Russian Military Intelligence Organization (GRU).
Initially, the Wagner group provided political deniability for Moscow and Putin because of its Russian-nesting doll structure and arcane leadership. But in 2022, Prigozhin admitted to serving as the Wagner Group’s leader. In 2023, Putin revealed that Russia had provided nearly $1 billion in funding to the Wagner Group in his statement, “From the Ministry of Defense, from the state budget, we fully financed this group.” Russia’s early ability to deny connections with the organization served as a means to deny responsibility for engagement in deadly foreign military interventions, or Russian deaths in these interventions. Today, Putin openly leverages the Wagner Group's operations in African nations, hoping to deepen these bilateral dependencies and increase Russia’s prestige as a regional power broker.
Currently, the Wagner Group is active in Mali. According to Alexander Ivanov, the involvement began in 2021 to rid Mali of “the neocolonial system…extracting the resources of African countries.” Allegedly, the agreement between the Wagner Group and the Malian junta was that Wagner, in exchange for its services, would receive $10 million and gain access to three gold mines in the country. Access to these Malian gold mines has significantly allowed Putin to dodge the effects of the West’s sanctions. Geopolitically, the Russian presence constitutes a Russian sphere of influence in Africa. Moscow's desire to assert itself as an alternative to the West has successfully undermined Western influence in the region and critically undermines the West’s ability to deter Russian aggression elsewhere.
Additionally, the Wagner presence in Mali strengthens ties between Russia and Mali, one of eight African countries that abstained from a UN vote condemning Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories in 2022. Wagner’s effort in Mali highlights its ability to shape the foreign policy decisions of African states to align with Russian geopolitical interests. In July 2024, Mali cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine over allegations Ukraine aided an attack in northern Mali. After severing ties with Ukraine, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop recognized Wagner’s role in reinforcing regional security and called Ukraine a “terrorist state.” With Russia striving to achieve and maintain hegemonic status, Wagner's presence in Mali and other parts of Africa expands its recognition as a great power and its ability to function as a successful aggressor.
As Russia faces heavy sanctions from the West for initiating the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, securing allies and economic partners has become increasingly vital. Thus, the Wagner Group’s ability to strengthen ties between Russia and other nations is extremely important to keep Russia’s economy afloat and legitimize Russian power. Military and security aid from the Wagner Group form connections with foreign nations, such as Mali, which gain additional backing for Russia in the UN, increasing its international political power.
In the future, Russia is likely to continue leveraging the Wagner Group to undermine Western influence and solidify its network of foreign alliances. The Russian state’s integration of the Wagner Group not only expands Russian geopolitical reach but also sets a new precedent for wielding state power beyond diplomacy and traditional military aid. This signals a shift in how modern powers exert influence––through actors that operate in gray areas of international law and warfare. The Wagner Group may establish a new international standard for how modern states sustain their influence and power on the global stage.