How U.S.-Brazilian Tensions Are Shaping Brazil’s Presidential Election
Brazil’s 2026 presidential election has become a major talking point in the media as the country prepares for an October 25th run-off. The race pits the Workers’ Party member and incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. Prior to the October 4 election, the two candidates were reportedly tied in the polls, highlighting just how competitive the race has become. Some of the biggest concerns for voters focus on economic policies, how to combat crime, and how democracy may change. For voters on both sides, an even bigger topic has become increasingly difficult to ignore: Brazil’s relationship with the United States.
Under the second Trump administration, U.S.-Brazilian relations have become increasingly strained, and Trump’s close relationship with the Bolsonaro family has made the division between Brasília and Washington increasingly difficult to separate from Brazilian politics. What makes this particular election different from others is just how often the relationship with the United States is discussed in different political campaigns. American trade policy, diplomatic visits, immigration policies, and even relationships between the politicians themselves have become the center of some of the speeches the candidates have given. With U.S.-Brazilian relations increasingly becoming a talking point in this election, the election could offer a glimpse into the future of the relationship between the two: one that becomes further intertwined or one that emphasizes greater independence.
U.S.-Brazil relations grew turbulent in July 2025, when the United States imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, including coffee, beef, and orange juice to retaliate against Brazil’s prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro. The former president had attempted to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election through a coup in Brasilia. Tensions escalated again in July 2026, when Brazil denied visas to American officials planning to travel prior to the upcoming election. Brazilian officials claimed that the officials had intentions to interfere in its election. The U.S. State Department denied this allegation. The dispute further intensified when the United States revoked the visa of Brazilian ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti.
The Trump administration has used Bolsonaro’s arrest to launch a larger dispute against President Lula’s administration. Trump’s support for the family has made Washington an important actor in Brazilian domestic politics. In July 2025, Trump publicly stated that the trial against Jair Bolsonaro was a “witch hunt” on Truth Social. In July 2026, Jair Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo Bolsonaro reportedly received permanent residency in the United States through the EB-1A category. This is reserved for candidates who possess “...extraordinary abilities in areas such as science, the arts, business and sports.” Just a month earlier, the Brazilian Supreme Court had sentenced Eduardo to four years and two months in prison for his role in the 2022 attempted coup. Eduardo has since stated he will only return to Brazil if he is granted amnesty. Eduardo has also advocated for the American government to take actions against the Supreme Court justice who ruled on his case. With Flávio Bolsonaro also running for president, the Bolsonaro family’s ties to Trump have become increasingly relevant to Brazil’s domestic politics. As the line between foreign policy and political influence continues to blur, the United States has become an important talking point in Brazilian politics.
The relationship between the Bolsonaro family and Trump has since become more intertwined. Flávio has continued to cultivate this relationship, visiting Washington in May of 2026 while campaigning to meet with the president. In July, Flávio asked the Trump administration to delay proposed tariffs until after the October election, arguing that implementing the tariffs would support Lula’s reelection campaign and lead to his victory. Flávio’s request demonstrated just how the Brazilian presidential campaigns have become connected to U.S. foreign economic policy. The American tariffs are no longer simply a trade decision, but something that Brazilian presidential candidates needed to incorporate into their platforms. Lula has argued that the country should invest in intergovernmental groups such as BRICS (made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), working towards a unified currency to try and reduce a dependency on the American dollar. Flávio’s campaign has been centered around implementing a debt ceiling, causing concerns regarding what will happen to the social programs Lula has invested in. The Bolsonaro family and Trump’s close relationship also questions how Flávio’s will deal with the U.S.’s interest in Brazil’s rare earth reserves.
In September, Lula brought these concerns to the international stage at a United Nations General Assembly. He warned against foreign intervention in Brazil, reaffirming that Brazil should be the sole actor in deciding its political or economic decisions. Although Lula did not directly mention the United States, his remarks came amid several months of tension over tariffs and the growing relationship to the Bolsonaro family. Lula echoed the notion that Brazil does not belong in “...anyone’s backyard.” The upcoming runoff seeks to address not only Brazil’s future, but also how the country intends to navigate its relationship with Washington. Regardless of which candidate will win, it is clear that the fine line between close cooperation and national sovereignty will be difficult to tread.