Vance in the South Caucasus: A Demonstration of U.S. Commitment in the Region
No sitting American President or Vice President had ever visited Armenia or Azerbaijan before. Vice President J.D. Vance did from February 9 to February 11 of 2026, making history on a tour of the South Caucasus. Vance’s visit is marked by explicit U.S. interest in competition with Russia and China. The South Caucasus is a region situated between Eastern Europe and West Asia along the southern Caucasus Mountains, roughly occupied by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Notably, Vance skipped a stop in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, once the U.S.’ strongest ally in the region. During these visits, Vance sought to cement growing U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus through actions including both a nuclear energy deal and announcing the sale of drone and surveillance technology with Armenia, and signing a strategic partnership charter with Azerbaijan. The primary motivation for Vance’s trip and increased partnership in the region is to pave the way for the impending Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).
In August 2025, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Washington to broker a declaration of peace to settle border disputes over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and show commitment to the TRIPP plan, specifically offering the U.S. exclusive development rights to establish a transit route in the corridor. However, this agreement is not binding. The document was only initialed by the respective leaders on August 8, with eventual signatures contingent on constitutional changes in Armenia. The long-term impact of this agreement is yet to be revealed, and though both leaders appear committed to peace, the document lacks its full legal force without binding signatures. The leaders did sign a Joint Declaration on Future Relations, in which states that the nations will agree to “chart a bright future not bound by past conflict, consistent with the UN Charter.” In this declaration, which reads as a political and infrastructural outline for the region, the nations consent to the speedy creation of a TRIPP “framework” in the South Caucasus. In continuation with the TRIPP initiative, Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan to reaffirm each nation’s commitment to peace and cooperation in the region.
TRIPP is a project intended to connect Central Asia and the Caspian basin to Europe, passing through Armenia. Specifically, it outlines a 27-mile rail and road corridor that intends to shift the power dynamic in the South Caucasus region in favor of the United States. Historically, Moscow has held extensive influence over the region, beginning in the nineteenth century when Russia annexed the South Caucasus from Iran, continuing into the twentieth century, when Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan were integrated under the USSR, and extending into the era of statehood for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia maintained singular influence in the region after South Caucasian independence by posturing as the sole security guarantor and economic backer for each newly independent nation. However, Russia’s power is waning as the Russia-Ukraine war continues to deplete the Kremlin’s resources and available attention for other significant regions. In the wake of this decline, the U.S., among other countries, have moved in to fill the power vacuum. Specifically, China has sought to exert infrastructural influence on the region, motivated by a desire to link Beijing and the Black Sea through a land route. In accordance with China’s global Belt and Road Initiative, China has invested heavily in the South Caucasus region in order to bolster an alternative to the traditional China-Mongolia-Russia route into the West.
U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus has slowly and gradually intensified after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the newly independent states became strategically important due to their location between the significant energy resources in Russia, Iran, and Türkiye. The region is referred to as the Middle Corridor, and one that could become critical as a way to circumvent Russia in overland trade with Asia. Since 1992, the United States has served as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group alongside Russia and France. At the same time, U.S. policy was shaped by competing priorities. The U.S. attempted to balance supporting Azerbaijan’s energy sector and pipeline routes that bypassed Russia and Iran while also maintaining strong ties with Armenia, influenced in part by a large and politically active Armenian-American community. In recent years, especially after the 2020 and 2023 conflicts that reshaped control over Nagorno-Karabakh and led to the displacement of Armenians from the region, U.S. involvement has centered on diplomatic mediation, humanitarian assistance, and efforts to reduce Russian influence in the region.
In Armenia, Vance and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed an agreement to continue negotiations on a civil nuclear energy deal. Following their meeting, Vance claimed that the U.S. was ready to invest in the country’s economic development and infrastructure. In Azerbaijan, Vance’s agenda centered around formalizing diplomatic and security cooperation. He signed a strategic partnership agreement with President Ilham Aliyev, broadening U.S. ties with Azerbaijan in areas such as defense, technology, energy security, and economic collaboration.
Vice President Vance’s historic visit and the launch of TRIPP represent more than symbolic diplomacy—they signal a broader strategic recalibration in the South Caucasus. From a U.S. perspective, Armenia and Azerbaijan could become incredibly valuable allies in an increasingly critical region, especially considering China’s encroachment on the South Caucasus through its Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s continued entanglement in Ukraine. If successful, TRIPP could solidify the United States as a central player in shaping the future of the South Caucasus region and trans-Eurasian trade.