Russia-China Relations Are Defined By One Common Goal: Challenging U.S. Power
At the end of March, a historic, three-day visit took place in Moscow — Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China and Russia have a long, complicated relationship, which took a sharp downturn during the Cold War. Specifically during the Korean War. Mao saw the Soviet Union’s refusal to provide adequate aid — such as medical services and aircrafts — and fight alongside Chinese troops as a betrayal. China struggled with its relationship to the USSR; although in the Cold War bi-polar system China’s communist ideology made it align more closely with USSR ideology than that of the West, China accused the USSR of deviating from true communism. Ultimately, the termination of Soviet relations with China due to differences in interpretations and application of Marxism—Leninism caused the Sino-Soviet split in 1960.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, diplomatic relations between the powers were restored. In 2001, they signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, which was renewed in 2021. Before the war in Ukraine began in 2022, Russia and China declared a relationship “without bounds,” a vague statement referring to their friendship and moral relationship rather than realpolitik. Putin and Xi themselves have a close relationship that extends beyond formal diplomatic meetings and Xi has even described Putin as his “best friend,” and they have met over 40 times in the last decade.
The relationship between the two countries, however, is not necessarily rooted in their mutual respect and admiration for one another — rather, it is over their biggest shared goal: confronting U.S. and Western dominance. The countries are both of the belief that the U.S. threatens their interests; according to Yale Law School’s Susan A. Thornton, “The deterioration of relations with the United States facilitates the driving together of China and Russia.”
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, China and Russia are not formal allies — they have not committed to defend each other with military support — but they are close strategic partners. China has refrained from condemning Russia’ invasion of Ukraine, despite its foreign policy being rooted in principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, likely due to its desire to set precedents for Taiwan and Hong Kong and not wanting to legitimize western institutions. Although China aims to be neutral and hesitates to put its full weight behind Russia — in the fear that its economic and political growth might be threatened and its efforts to strengthen economic ties around the world might suffer — it has still endorsed Russian narratives by assigning blame towards the U.S. and NATO, asserting they started the conflict. It has also refrained from joining in on continued sanctions against Moscow.
From 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea, the countries’ economic ties have been particularly strong. At the time, China helped Russia evade sanctions imposed by the Obama administration intended to cut off Russia’s access to global markets. More recently, at the beginning of the 2022 Ukraine War, total trade surged between the two nations. Russia has developed an economic dependence on China—with Putin requiring assistance to bolster his economy while the West seeks to wean off its purchasing of Russian oil and natural gas. China, to help offset the loss, opted to start buying more energy from Russia, and additionally supplied computer chips, smartphones and other raw materials.
As of February 2023, U.S. intelligence suggests that China is considering providing arms and ammunition to Russia for use in Ukraine, however this would likely “plunge U.S.-China relations into a state from which they may not recover” according to Diana Choyleva, a chief economist at Enodo Economics. Further, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken says that this would be a “serious problem.” The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said that China arming Russia would be like crossing a red line.
Russia and China do have some major differences, for example in their foreign policy goals. China, although it competes with the U.S., seeks to build worldwide economic and diplomatic ties as a more cooperative member of the international order and an increasingly active member of international institutions, such as the United Nations. China is unwilling to incite flagrantly illegal armed conflict, as Putin did when it suddenly invaded Ukraine. In contrast, Russia has gone against international norms on several occasions, such as through election meddling and cyberattacks in the U.S.
Despite their different approaches as members of the international system, China and Russia’s bilateral actions reveal collaborative actions intended to undermine the Western world, shifting it away from the rules that have regulated Western-dominated geopolitical arrangements, according to analysts. As the two countries continue to cooperate amidst China’s growing economic power and Russia’s continued military attacks, the future of the international order comes into question.