Against The Grain of Precedence: The Re-Election of Nayib Bukele
With just four months remaining until the 2024 Salvadoran presidential elections, the shadow of a growing crisis looms over the bustling capital city of San Salvador. As millions of Salvadorans prepare to cast their ballots, El Salvador’s incumbent president seeks to remain in power against the grain of the nation’s constitution.
As the election season begins, a constitutional crisis emerges as questions arise on the legality of incumbent President Nayib Bukele’s campaign. According to the Associated Press, constitutional lawyers assert that Bukele’s re-election would violate several articles of the Salvadoran constitution. Unlike the United States Constitution, which permits the incumbent president to hold two consecutive terms, Article 154 of the Salvadoran constitution establishes precedence for the opposite, stating: “The presidential term will be five years and will begin and end on June 1, without the person who has held the presidency being able to continue in their function even one more day.” This concern comes after the Salvadoran Supreme Court – replaced with Bukele-aligned lawmakers following a political crisis in 2021 – deemed that the President’s campaign for a second term was admissible. The United States government affirmed its stance and condemned the decision, citing that this ruling undermines democracy and that the “decline in democratic governance damages the relationship that the United States strives to maintain with the government of El Salvador.”
The administration of Nayib Bukele, characterized by its mano dura (“strong hand”) policies, has been marred by criticisms from the international community for its authoritarian governance, history of political crises, and pressing methodologies in its crackdown on organized crime. The government in San Salvador has experienced two political crises in the administration’s five-year tenure: Bukele’s decision to order 40 armed militants to enter the Salvadoran Legislative Assembly in 2020, and the controversial removal of five opposing judges from the Salvadoran Supreme Court in 2021. The administration’s authoritarian rule is evocative of the nation’s massacrous and repressive past, and its extreme reach incites concerns for activists, opposing politicians, and legal experts who are wary of the country's separation of power, the rule of law, and the spread of authoritarianism in the region.
Despite the controversy and criticism, Bukele remains popular among Salvadorans. To the nation’s six million people, the presidency is a rarity among Bukele’s predecessors in El Salvador’s war-torn history: one highlighted by the complacent policies of former administrations, of violent organized crime, corruption, and socioeconomic inequality. Throughout its five-year term, the Bukele administration has reaped the benefits of commandeering an intense crackdown on organized crime, spearheading efforts to revitalize El Salvador’s image on the world stage, and prioritizing creating opportunities to stem illegal migration to the United States. Bukele, in his address to the 78th session of the United Nations General Assembly, continued to tout the prowess of El Salvador in its crackdown tactics. The administration’s policies have allowed Bukele to boast a 92 percent approval rating amongst El Salvador’s populace, according to a survey conducted in June by TResearch.
Criticism for the Bukele administration, although prominent in other Western countries, remains largely absent in the region as the mimicking of El Salvador’s authoritarian policies continues throughout Central America, albeit with mixed success. In neighboring Honduras, policies reminiscent of San Salvador’s crackdown on gang violence came in the ushering of a state of emergency by the government in Tegucigalpa, all in a mixed-success endeavor to effectively quell organized crime in the country. In Costa Rica, one of the region’s most robust democracies, critics warn of the proliferation of authoritarian rule within the government in San José as politicians aim to emulate the policies of the Bukele administration in the country. El Salvador’s foreign policy focusing on declining complacency and diminished citizen insecurity, bolstered by a contemporary millennial autocrat, continues to echo an elusive prospect of success throughout Latin America.
Despite the increasing pressure on the precedence of the Salvadoran constitution, the populace of the smallest country in Central America remains adamant about the radical metamorphosis their country has exhibited under the administration of Bukele: a new era of stability and security for Salvadoran society. Marred with criticisms, the Bukele administration remains committed to securing another term in San Salvador, all while inciting concerns for those weary of the implications of future authoritarianism in El Salvador and the Latin American sphere of influence. Bukele’s unprecedented popularity and success evoke the second term of Nayib Bukele as set in stone. Still, the legality of Bukele’s re-election remains a contentious topic among many — the fear of authoritarianism in a region scarred by its tumultuous past beckons concern. However, as February nears and Salvadorans head to the ballot boxes, the question stands: Will enough public support overcome the consequences of a constitutional crisis to reign in another successful term for the incumbent, or similar to attempts at an authoritarian autocracy, will the act of going against the grain of precedence lead to the recurrence of history?