Can You Keir The Music? Keir Starmer’s Path to Victory in the Next General Election in the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom is inching toward the next general election, and the Labour Party, under Keir Starmer’s leadership, is facing a defining moment. Out of power since 2010, the Labour Party has their greatest chance of success since then in the next elections. Starmer, who took the reins in April 2020, inherited a party fractured by internal divisions and ideological schisms. His tenure has been marked by efforts to steer Labour away from the far-left policies of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and towards a more centrist, pragmatic approach. A balancing act between different factions within the Labour Party has characterized Starmer’s leadership style. He has made considerable efforts to unify the party and attempted to carefully navigate between the party’s pro-EU membership, the Euroskeptic Corbyn supporters, and the centrists’ longing for the Blair era. Starmer’s attempt to placate these diverse groups is critical for Labour to appear as a cohesive, government-in-waiting entity.
Starmer, however, has faced significant pushback throughout his tenure as the leader of the Labour Party. His moderate economic and social policies have upset the more left-leaning wing of the party, which was heavily loyal to Corbyn. For example, John McDonnell, a prominent member of the Labour Party’s left wing, has claimed that Starmer has allowed a “right-wing faction” to exercise more influence over the party’s complete platform. Corbyn’s legacy includes higher taxes and greater expenses on welfare and other public services, but his reputation was tarnished by an antisemitism scandal that led him to resign from party leadership in 2020.
Currently, the war in Gaza has only amplified said differences. While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and more moderate members of the Labour Party, including Starmer, have expressed support for Israel, the far-left branch of the party has been far more supportive of the pro-Palestine movement. However, Starmer has sought to find a middle ground, criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for refusing to recognize Palestinian statehood while simultaneously repeating his stance that Israel has the right to pursue military action in the light of the October 7 attacks. This stance demonstrates his attempt to strike a balance.
However, this push for compromise runs the risk of potential alienatation of both the pro-Palestine faction within his party and those staunchly pro-Israel. Starmer faces considerable challenges to moderate positions in foreign affairs., such as the party’s ties to the trade union movement, and pressure from the European Union over immigration in the wake of Brexit.
Of course, one cannot discuss Starmer without discussing his primary opponent — incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Sunak, like his fellow Conservative predecessors David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss, has faced considerable opposition and controversy. Sunak’s main roadblock is, at this point, his rapid, unexpected pivot towards a more conservative, “everyman” platform, attempting to appeal to blue collar voters. Some of his party members have even criticized this new approach as Sunak is one of the wealthiest world leaders today, and his attempts to portray himself as a working-class champion have been met with scoffs of irony.
While there has been plenty of speculation and discussion, the actual timeline for the next election remains unclear. Prime Minister Sunak’s Conservative government gets to decide when the next election will be held, but their parliament is scheduled to be dissolved on December 17, 2024, and according to UK law, an election must be held before January 28, 2025. It is widely expected that the election will take place either in late December or early January. The Conservative government will be strategic in when to announce and schedule the election, as they attempt to rally enough support to secure another government. It will be the first election since December 12, 2019, where Boris Johnson’s Conservative government scored a decisive victory. Since then, the United Kingdom has seen two more Prime Ministers (Liz Truss and incumbent Rishi Sunak), the death of Queen Elizabeth II, and ascension of King Charles III. In the wake of all of these events, the United Kingdom stands at a crossroads, and is looking for a leader that will light its path forward.
Polls have consistently shown in recent months that Labour has a clear path to form a government. This shift in public opinion can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Starmer’s strategic repositioning of the Labour Party towards the center has resonated with a broader electorate. By moving away from the far-left policies of Jeremy Corbyn, he has made Labour more palatable to centrist voters who were alienated during Corbyn’s tenure. Starmer’s practical approach, focusing on economic recovery and social justice, seems to strike the right chord with voters disillusioned with the Conservative government’s handling of various issues, like Brexit or the housing crisis.
Secondly, the current political climate has been turbulent for the Conservatives. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, despite his attempts to reinvent himself as an ‘everyman,’ has struggled with the legacy of his predecessors and the economic challenges facing the UK. The Conservatives have been marred by controversies and internal conflicts (such as the Liz Truss debacle), which have damaged their public image and credibility. This situation has allowed Starmer and the Labour Party to present themselves as a stable and competent alternative.
However, as it is still very early, many roadblocks could prevent Labour from victory. Starmer will have to navigate the stark internal divisions within his party, ensuring that the left-wing feels represented while not alienating centrist voters. Additionally, he must articulate a clear and compelling vision for the UK’s future, particularly in the post-Brexit landscape, which remains a highly contentious issue among the electorate. This is something Starmer will continue to work on over the next several months, as the election grows closer. Will it be enough to secure a Labour victory? Only time will tell.