Costly Coal or Novelty Nuclear: How are States in South and Southeast Asia Responding to the Conflict in the Middle East?

There hasn’t been an extended period of peace in the Middle East since 1979, when the Israel-Egypt peace treaty was signed, supposedly ending large-scale interstate wars in the region. For decades, however, conflicts between terrorist groups, governments, and civilians have plagued the Middle East—Operation Epic Fury, carried out on February 28, 2026, by the United States and Israel, is the latest instigator. The strikes aimed to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, military, and leadership after U.S.-Iran nuclear program negotiations broke down. Since its launch, the offensive has killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of senior government members. The spillover effects of the conflict in the region have been enormous, with missile strikes occurring in Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Militarily, all sides have faced their own share of fatalities that only anger the warring parties.

The economy and energy prices have also been hit hard by the war. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stopped the flow of approximately 20 percent of the global oil supply. Attacks have also been reported at major oil and gas hubs, with many oil producers suspending production and energy prices skyrocketing. Around the world, billions of people are feeling the impact of the war through higher prices, but none more than those in Asia. A key focal point of this conflict is the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Its geographical location makes it economically important, as it serves as one of the world’s main energy chokepoints, with approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments passing through it each day. The narrowest point of the Strait lies directly in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters. According to the BBC, “as of 2 April, non-profit United Against Nuclear Iran said at least 24 commercial vessels had been hit, plus three near misses.” These attacks have led to significant delays in shipments, with disastrous political and economic consequences worldwide.

The shortage hits the South and Southeast Asian regions the hardest, as most oil shipments passing through the Strait at the time of its closure were bound for those regions. The closure forced many South and Southeast Asian countries to rethink their energy policies, confronting the reality that their overreliance on fossil fuels had left them in a severe crisis. To rapidly bring energy and electricity to their people, Asian countries were forced to turn back to coal, a move with severe consequences for the climate. According to the Associated Press, “India is burning more coal to meet higher summer demand. South Korea has lifted caps on coal-fired electricity. Indonesia is prioritizing using its domestic supply. Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam are boosting coal-fired power.” This reversion to coal not only increases global greenhouse gas emissions and localized pollution but also stalls each nation’s transition to renewable energy. It is safe to say that these states have found a short-term solution, but in the long term, coal is unsustainable as a fuel source. This discrepancy is where nuclear energy enters the conversation. 

Countries in Asia must quickly find an alternative to coal-fired power or risk failing to meet their sustainability targets. The war in Iran has highlighted how fragile the fossil fuel transport system is, and the surge in prices is motivating many to “speed up their nuclear efforts,” said Alvie Asuncion-Astronomo of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute in comments to the Associated Press. Deals to advance nuclear power have been announced between Vietnam and Russia, while Bangladesh is working to power up its first nuclear power plant in Rooppur. Another motivating factor for the development of nuclear energy is the region's growing AI industry. More than 2,000 data centers are located in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines alone, collectively accounting for a significant portion of global energy demand. Nuclear energy provides a power source to keep these data centers up and running. Many Southeast Asian states have already begun to push towards nuclear energy, either through Russian-backed power plants or modular reactors. 

The drastic shift in South and Southeast Asia toward short-term coal use and long-term nuclear energy plans demonstrates how the conflict in the Middle East has spillover effects felt globally. Faced with an energy crisis, these states are forced to compromise their sustainability goals to keep the lights on in homes. A burgeoning AI industry provides these governments with a solution to their problems, offering an alternative to the costly consequences of long-term coal use.