Current Geopolitical Tensions and Renewed Fighting Between Armenian and Azerbaijani Forces has Potential to Draw Regional Powers into Conflict
184 people died during the renewed conflict in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in the Caucuses. The fighting, which broke out between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, lasted two days before a ceasefire agreement was reached. The recent dispute broke the ceasefire agreement that ended a six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has waged on since 1988 and it is unclear what provoked this clash. The Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry claimed that it engaged in the conflict in response to “large-scale provocation” from Armenian forces. Meanwhile, Armenia’s Defense Ministry announced that it responded to a bombardment of Azeri artillery and drone strikes. Armenia’s Defense Ministry also accused Azerbaijan of targeting civilian infrastructure.
The longtime adversaries have made several serious allegations against one another, dating back to the beginning of the conflict. In 2021, in a United Nations court, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of committing an ethnic cleansing campaign against Azerbaijani civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Azeri Foreign Ministry made these claims again following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s press conference in Yerevan, Armenia.
In her visit following the conflict, Speaker Pelosi held a press conference announcing that the fighting “was initiated by Azeris.” She went on to emphasize the importance of Armenian security following the “illegal and deadly attacks from Azerbaijan on Armenian territory.” Speaker Pelosi’s comments drew harsh criticism from the Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry, demonstrating the heightening tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
“We emphasize with regret that Pelosi, who speaks of justice, has not purposefully shown any position until today regarding the policy of aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan,” the ministry said in response to Speaker Pelosi’s comments. “The occupation of the territory of Azerbaijan for almost 30 years, the ethnic cleansing of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis and other similar grave crimes, for which Armenia is responsible.”
Ethnic tensions have existed between Armenians and Azerbaijanis since the early 1920s when the Soviet Union gave the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. During this time, the population in Nagorno-Karabakh was 95 percent ethnic Armenian. In 1988, as the Soviet Union was weakening, skirmishes broke out between the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijani forces. The conflict continued to rage on until a Russian-brokered peace agreement in 1994. By this time, Armenians had taken control of the territory and moved to take surrounding Azerbaijani territories. It is estimated that around 20,000 people died during the war and one million people were displaced.
Azerbaijan and Armenia continued to engage in deadly border disputes, culminating in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. During this conflict, Azerbaijan reclaimed the majority of the land. The war left just over 6,600 soldiers dead before a Russian-brokered peace agreement was reached. As part of the agreement, a brigade of Russian soldiers was dispatched to the Nagorno-Karabakh territory as peacekeepers.
Russia has long been a mediator in the conflict and brokered ceasefires during both the 1994 and 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh wars. Russia has interests in both Azerbaijan and Armenia and appears to have ulterior motives as it negotiates. Armenia hosts a Russian military base and around 10,000 Russian soldiers. Russia is also involved in Azerbaijan as it is a major arms exporter to the country. Following the most recent clash, Kremlin Spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, announced that President Vladimir Putin was “making every effort to help de-escalate tensions on the border.”
The current geopolitical tensions between surrounding countries have the potential to draw major powers into the conflict. The dispute has previously attracted the attention of neighboring powers. In 2020, Azerbaijan received support from Turkey and Israel, while Armenia has historically received protection from Russia. Russia and Turkey are also engaged on the opposite side of the wars in Libya and Syria. These alliances are further fueled by the strained relationship between Armenia and Turkey due to Turkey’s denial of the Armenian Genocide.
The recent development in this long-standing conflict comes as Russia is preoccupied with the war it is waging in Ukraine. "The timing of this is interesting because Russia really cannot help Armenia at this very moment," Paul Stronski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told NPR. "The timing, the fact that Russia is preoccupied, certainly led to what looks like an Azerbaijani offensive at this time."
An Armenian official announced that a ceasefire to the recent fighting had been reached following two days of conflict. The Armenian Defense Ministry also reported that shooting at the border had halted. However, while this most recent conflict has ended, Azerbaijan and Armenia are still at odds over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. The future of this tense relationship continues to remain up in the air and these clashes will likely occur until a solid resolution is reached.
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