Japan Bolsters National Security in the Face of Rising Threats

Japan has recently increased its level of national security focus by strengthening international cooperation and increasing its annual military spending. U.S. National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan held trilateral talks with visiting Japanese National Security Agency Director General Tsugio Akiba and South Korean National Security Office Chief Kim Sung-han in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii on August 30, 2022. With the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, the U.S. and South Korean navies conducted a joint anti-submarine military exercise against North Korea on September 30, 2022 in the waters of the East China Sea. This is the second time the three countries have conducted the  exercise  together since December 2017.

Following the military exercise, American, Australian and Japanese defense ministers also met in Honolulu on October 2, 2022 to discuss how to continue supporting Ukrainian forces in the ongoing war with Russia and how to strengthen Indo-Pacific regional ties and networks related to security, stability, and prosperity.

Shortly after, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly at his residence on October 13 and agreed to strengthen cooperation in the area of security and safety. Both sides declared a two-state action plan to achieve a "free and open Indo-Pacific.” In the plan, the two countries agree to strengthen cooperation in the field of security via shared intelligence, and subsequently, Japan and Canada formally began negotiations to sign an Intelligence Protection Agreement that would allow the sharing of military intelligence information. Meanwhile, Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a security agreement on October 22 under which the two countries' defense forces will jointly train in northern Australia and expand and strengthen cooperation in a range of areas, including comprehensive defense and intelligence sharing.

The Japanese government also decided to independently accelerate its defense capabilities in response to increasing geopolitical risks. The Japanese government plans to increase its defense budget to more than six trillion yen (about 43 billion dollars) in the fiscal year 2023, raising it to more than 1 percent of GDP, and to increase military spending to ten trillion yen and 2 percent of GDP within five years. 2 percent of GDP would mean that Japan's annual defense budget would increase to ten trillion yen (72 billion dollars), ranking third in the world behind the United States and China.

So, why is Japan starting to strengthen its defense at such an exponential rate just this year? There are three key reasons. First, the growing threat from North Korea looms to the north, as it has mastered deploying small nuclear warheads on missiles with ranges covering Japan. Second, after the war between Russia and Ukraine, Japan's attitude toward Russia has hardened. Fumio Kishida described the disputed northern islands as "inherent territory.” Thirdly, the risk of peace in the Taiwan Strait has increased. After Pelosi's trip to Asia, China launched multiple missiles during a Chinese naval exercise, saying five landed in Japanese waters according to Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi .

Most importantly, Japan's constitution could face significant changes. Driven by the instability around them, in the summer of 2022, Japanese politicians began to discuss amending the constitution, and Fumio Kishida expressed his willingness to amend the constitution, saying he "hopes to advance the discussion in the Die (Japanese Congress) and the understanding of the people". Previously, Japan had been using a peace constitution left over from World War II, which prohibited Japan from having a nominal army and waging any war. In the July election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won more than half of the 63 seats, and the pro-constitution forces won more than the two-thirds of seats of Diet needed to propose amendments to the constitution. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida claimed that he would push for a motion to amend the constitution in the Diet as soon as possible, and eventually work to achieve it.

However, the Japanese public has less interest in amending the constitution. In history, when Abe allowed the Japanese military overseas operations, as Boston University Professor Thomas Berger mentions, the Japanese public at large has been highly skeptical of a reform that links the ability to use military strength in overseas operations to a sense of national pride. According to an opinion poll conducted by one of the Japanese largest newspapers Asahi Shimbun on May 2, 2022, 59 percent of Japanese people believe that Article 9 (the peaceful article making sure Japan can not declare wars toward others) of the Constitution should not be amended. A survey held by the Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) on May 3 showed that only 29 percent favored amending the Constitution. Japan's word of the year for 2021 is money. Faced with the sharp devaluation of the yen and the global economic setback, the Japanese people want the government to use more capitals and manpower to stimulate the economy instead of pushing for changes to the constitution. This presents a paradox: conservative Diet members want to amend the constitution, while the general opinion of Japanese society is not eager to do so. If a motion to amend the constitution is proposed without the support of public opinion, the ruling party is bound to face great risks.T With shaky public support in changing the constitution, Fumio Kishida was wise to sign more national security cooperation agreements with other countries to maintain the security of Japan.

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