The Tribulations and Implications of Nordic NATO Membership
Image courtesy of Jon Flobrant via Unsplash
In light of Europe’s changed security climate following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO members continue to weigh the value of Sweden and Finland’s memberships. All members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must approve the admittance of new ones, which is why Turkish President Recep Erdoğan and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s apprehensive attitudes are creating a roadblock for unity. Turkey is raising opposition to Finnish and especially Swedish inclusion in the transatlantic alliance over the perceived support the countries are granting the Kurdistan Workers Party (or PKK) and other militant political organizations or terrorist groups. Specifically, Erdogan believes Sweden is an asylum for harboring, organizing, and financing anti-Turkish activities and public manifestations.
The burning of the Quran by a far right politician outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm only strengthened Erdogan’s opposition. Hungary, once disappointed in the public demonstrations of Islamophobia, has finally signaled that they accept Sweden's apology and will no longer stand in the way of their membership. This leaves Turkey as the final obstacle. However, Turkey’s grievances play a part in an ulterior political motivation. With elections this May, Erdogan is seeking to showcase his influence in the foreign policy arena to improve his chance at domestic incumbency.
To improve their image on the European stage, Sweden and Finland are taking steps to increase the likelihood for membership. The countries are addressing Erogdan’s concerns and, in turn, making concessions to cooperate with Turkey on issues of terrorism. Sweden and Finland have both lifted their arms blockades on Turkey which were established three years ago when Turkey intervened in Syria. In addition, they have agreed to actively work on creating mechanisms to subjugate the PKK as well as etradite terrorist suspects. This trilateral memorandum encouraged NATO member to sign the Accession Protocols for Sweden and Finland on July 5, 2022, hence initiating the ratification process. As of now, both are considered applicant countries, also known as an invitee status, until all NATO members approve Sweden and Finland’s applications. Under this standing, there will be gradual integration into the structures of the transatlantic treaty.
Other members are practicing patience, as they recognize the value the Nordic states will bring to NATO and advocate for a quick incorporation. Sweden and Finland have worked alongside the alliance for roughly thirty years, and are widely renowned as qualified security partners and proponents of democracy. Despite their previous policy of military nonalignment, the two Nordic countries feel as if joining this organization is the best way to protect their security. With the threat of Russia on their shoulders, the partnered countries seek a joint bid for the promise of Article 5 protection, which claims that if any NATO ally is a victim to armed attack, each member will take action to assist in necessary defense. This applies especially to Finland, which remains fearful of its shared border with Russia.
Finland and Sweden’s accession will completely transform the landscape of the war, especially if it were to expand past Ukraine. These countries expand NATO’s influence in the Baltic sea region, allowing a more prompt response to crisis and distribution of resources. Incorporating Finland would also add about 800 miles of frontier and military mobility to NATO. A Nordic addition to NATO would run a regional security link from the Arctic through the North and Baltic Sea. With this deterrent posture, NATO can monitor Russia’s Baltic Fleet and limit their export flow and maritime commerce through Saint Petersburg, one of Russia’s most crucial ports. As a consequence, Russian President Vladimir Putin will face economic hardship, limiting his ability to finance the war and creating domestic unrest.
It is crucial for NATO to integrate the remaining Nordic region at this perilous time of war. Turkey must pardon their wrongdoings for the greater good of Sweden and Finland’s memberships. Swedish and Finnish inclusion reduces the chance of a successful Russian attack on the small Baltic states and profoundly weakens Russia’s position in northeastern Europe. Their memberships would be a geopolitical gamechanger, adding wealthy, democratic, and militarily adept countries to a crucial strategic region. The transatlantic alliance would strengthen militarily and geographically with the addition of these nations and allow for the adoption of a coherent deterrent strategy against Putin’s war.
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